They think that if Science is not infinitely certain, or if it has ever admitted a mistake, then it is no longer a trustworthy source, and can be ignored. Those without the understanding of the Quantitative Way will often map the process of arriving at beliefs onto the social domains of Authority. It may be impossible to completely eliminate bias, but it is still worth reducing bias. However, this does not mean that everything is the same shade of gray. But, because you're already thinking about that event enough to calculate the probability of it, it feels like it's still worth keeping track of. Sometimes, you calculate the probability of a certain event and find that the number is so unbelievably small that your brain really can't keep track of how small it is, any more than you can spot an individual grain of sand on a beach from 100 meters off.
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Part of the reason professional evolutionary biologists dislike just-so stories is that many of them are simply wrong. But, if there is a way to test the theory, people tend to consider it more likely to be correct. In Evolutionary Biology or Psychology, a nice-sounding but untested theory is referred to as a "just-so story", after the stories written by Rudyard Kipling. The voters themselves get so little say in who the next president is that the best we can do is just to not vote for nincompoops. Ultimately, all arguments for "strategic voting" tend to fall apart. Naturally, those organizations put considerable thought into who is electable in making their decision. One of the most important factors in whether someone is "electable" is whether they have received attention from the media and the support of one of the two major parties. Many people try to vote "strategically", by considering which candidate is more "electable".
Instead, voters' main ability is the threat to change which party controls the government, or, extremely rarely, to completely dethrone both political parties and replace them with a third. In fact, the power of voting for a particular candidate (which is not the same as the power to choose which candidates will run) is not the greatest power of the voters. The conclusions we draw from analyzing the American political system are often biased by our own previous understanding of it, which we got in elementary school. The American System and Misleading Labels Nobody is allowed to criticize their own team's politicians, without their fellow voters accusing them of treason. And yet, they support their own "team members" with fanatic devotion. Voters for either political party usually have more in common with each other than they do with the politicians they vote for. Įliezer warns readers that he is about to make a few posts directly discussing politics. This page contains summaries of LessWrong posts published in 2008.
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